[1]杨博琼 李欣诺 赵启然.中国农业经济史问题量化研究：进展、挑战与方向[J].中国农史,2025,(05):67-78.
　YANG Boqiong LI Xinnuo ZHAO Qiran.A Quantitative Research on The History of Chinese Agricultural Economy: Advances, Challenges and Directions[J].AGRICULTURAL HISTORY OF CHINA,2025,(05):67-78.
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中国农业经济史问题量化研究：进展、挑战与方向()

《中国农史》[ISSN:1000-4459/CN:32-1061/S]

卷:
期数:
2025年05期
页码:
67-78
栏目:
出版日期:
2025-10-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
A Quantitative Research on The History of Chinese Agricultural Economy: Advances, Challenges and Directions
作者:
杨博琼1 李欣诺2 赵启然2
（1.北京农学院 经济管理学院，北京 102206；2.中国农业大学 经济管理学院，北京 100083）
Author(s):
YANG Boqiong1 LI Xinnuo2 ZHAO Qiran2
（1.College of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Agriculture, Beijing 102206；2.College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083）
关键词:
农业经济史; 量化研究; 历史数据库; 计量模型
Keywords:
Chinese agricultural economic history;  quantitative research;  historical databases;  econometric mode
分类号:
S-09；K212
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
农业经济史量化研究有助于探索中国传统农业文明演进规律。本文系统梳理传统史料数字化进程、数据库建设情况及计量模型的应用推广，并进一步分析农业生产、市场价格、生活水平、土地制度及外部因素五大领域的量化实践成果。研究发现，当前农业经济史研究面临两大核心挑战：一是学科深度融合的困境，即经济学模型难以完全适配复杂的历史场景，导致理论框架与历史情境存在脱节情形；二是数据处理与代理变量选择的约束，历史数据异质性导致计量工具适配困难，代理变量的间接性可能引发因果推断的偏差。量化研究是中国农业经济史学的重要发展领域之一，未来研究方向和重点可在夯实史料基础、突破学科边界与加强微观层面分析方面系统推进，最终促成传统史学与量化研究的深度融合。同时，为阐释中国农业文明演进规律及推进当代乡村振兴战略提供兼具历史厚度与方法论创新的学术支撑。
Abstract:
The quantitative study of agricultural economic history is helpful to explore the evolution law of Chinese traditional agricultural civilization. This paper systematically sorts out the digitization process of traditional historical materials, database construction and the application and promotion of econometric models. And further analysis of agricultural production, market prices, living standards, land system and external factors in the five areas of quantitative practice results. The study found that the current research on agricultural economic history faces two core challenges: First, the dilemma of deep integration of disciplines, that is, it is difficult for economic models to fully adapt to complex historical scenarios, resulting in a disconnection between the theoretical framework and historical context. Second, the constraints of data processing and proxy variable selection. The heterogeneity of historical data leads to the difficulty of adaptation of measurement tools, and the indirectness of proxy variables may lead to the deviation of causal inference. Quantitative research is one of the important development trends of China’s agricultural economic history. The future research direction and focus can be systematically promoted in consolidating the historical data foundation, breaking through the discipline boundary and strengthening the micro-level analysis. Finally, it promoted the deep integration of traditional historiography and quantitative research. It also provides academic support with both historical thickness and methodological innovation for explaining the evolution law of China’s agricultural civilization and promoting the strategy of contemporary rural revitalization.
更新日期/Last Update: 2025-11-27