陆运交通视角下的清代粮食贸易网——基于理论层面的量化和统计分析-《中国农史》

文章信息/Info

Title:: Grain Trade in the Qing Dynasty from the Perspective of Land Transportation：Based on Quantitative and Statistical Analysis

作者:: 胡鹏1; 2 李军3; （1. 西北大学科学史高等研究院，陕西西安 710127；2. 陕西师范大学西北历史环境与经济社会发展研究院，陕西西安7101192；3. 中国农业大学经济管理学院，北京 100083）

Author(s):: HU Peng1 ; 2 LI Jun3; (1. Institute for Advanced Study in History of Science, Northwest University, Xi’ an 710127; 2. Northwest Institute of Historical Environment and Socio-Economic Development, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’ an 710119; 3. College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083)

Keywords:: land transportation; grain trade; arbitrage opportunity; Qing Dynasty

摘要:: 陆运交通是清代中短程粮食贸易网的重要支撑。文章首次系统利用清代全国粮食价格和陆运交通数据，从理论层面定量分析乾隆至宣统朝的陆运粮食贸易网络。研究基于“清代粮价数据库”和《清代道光至宣统朝粮价表》，构建全国59万条府级月度小麦、大米价格序列；综合政书、方志、商书、邮政舆图等史料，运用地理信息技术复原清代府级行政区间3.4万条陆运交通路线和里程数据；结合官方脚费记录，从陆运视角揭示粮食贸易网的空间特征。研究发现：清代粮食陆运贸易网主要集中于600里内短程区间；大米市场存在900—1200里跨省中程陆运套利空间；而依托传统陆运方式，1500里以上长程粮食贸易则难以维系。

Abstract:: Land transportation was an important support for the medium and short distance grain trade network in the Qing Dynasty. This paper systematically utilizes historical data on national grain and land transportation data for the first time to quantitatively analyze the grain trade network reigns in1736-1911. We integrated price datasets encompassing 589,686 prefectural-level monthly price records for wheat and rice. By reconstructing 34,454 land transport routes with geospatial technology and historical documents, we analyzed spatial characteristics, revealing three key findings: within the wheat and rice dominated grain market, land trade networks were largely confined to short-distance ranges under 600 li (346 km). Crucially, the rice market demonstrated clear arbitrage opportunities achievable via interprovincial, medium-distance land transport spanning 900-1,200 li (518-691 km). Conversely, traditional land transport methods rendered cross-market arbitrage for long-distance grain trade exceeding 1,500 li (864 km) prohibitively expensive.